The Bank of Russia found positive in an economic downturn:
Elvira Nabiullina said logic controller: the Central Bank, reducing rate, was guided by medium-term macroeconomic projections, as well as information about inflation expectations in January 2015.
- Elvira: the placement of bonds of Rosneft in December was "a factor of pressure" on the ruble
In an interview with Forbes magazine, Elvira Nabiullina said: "the interest rate hike to 17% in December was aimed at stabilizing inflation and devaluation expectations. This measure led to the results that we expected. Now there are all conditions to slightly reduce the rate without prejudice to the goal of reducing inflation to 4% in the medium term".
Taking the decision, the Central Bank took into account not only the current level of inflation and forecast its growth: "Look, inflation has increased under the action of a sufficiently powerful, but limited in time factors: the fall in oil prices was very sharp, and the repetition of such a fall is unlikely. The result of the drop in oil prices was the weakening of the ruble, who made a major contribution to inflation", - explained the head of the Central Bank.
"At the same time put pressure on the ruble large amount of foreign debt payments, which this year will be less. Now the effect of the incident of the weakening of the fades, the slowdown in the economy will also lead to lower inflation - led it to the arguments of the Central Bank. According to our estimates, the quarterly inflation will be much lower already in the second quarter of 2015, however, the peak annual growth rates due to base effects will be in the second quarter. In the future, we expect a slowdown in annual inflation."
Given that the prerequisites for reducing inflation has been formed, and the risks to growth have increased, and the Central Bank decided to lower the key rate, said Nabiullina.
Another factor that allowed the Central Bank to lower the rate, was the effect of the transfer": a surge of demand in the consumer market in December 2014 according to the logic of the Bank of Russia to further reduce pressure on prices in the first half of 2015.
The very rate reduction caused the weakening of the ruble against the background of stable oil prices, but the Central Bank believe that this will not affect inflation, writes "Kommersant".
According to the publication, by the Board of Directors on 30 January, there were proposals to lower interest rates and lower than 15%. The logic controller rate reduction - not so much positive, how much negative news. The majority of experts evaluated it from the point of view of growth of profit of banks, supporting lending and last but not least pressure on the Central Bank from the government.
The key rate of the Central Bank may at some point in 2015 to be lower than current inflation, but not for long: the Bank does not give up any of the goals to reduce inflation to 4% in 2017, nor the policy of maintaining real positive rates of the loan, assuming that the upcoming GDP only facilitate movement towards these goals.